Session 10 - Technology Assessment and Forecasting: Developing a Framework for Understanding What Comes Next

Technological progress is inevitable but it can never be free of ethical implications. Scientists and innovators ought to have a moral compass with regards to their work, but we must recognize that they are not trained ethicists themselves. Therefore, there is a need to conduct technology assessments to evaluate a particular current technology and examine its potential as well as its implications. Technology assessment take on a global perspective and looks into the future. It strives to solve existing problems and prevent potential damage caused by inappropriate application of new technologies. However, one problem is that the impacts of technologies cannot be easily predicted until the technology is extensively developed and widely used. Therein lies the problem, when such technology is widely utilized, it may be difficult to control or be changed. Such technologies include nanotechnology, information technology, nuclear technology etc.

Technology forecasting is examining a range of technologies and predicting the future opportunities on how it could change the world, as well as its characteristics. Some commonly foresight methodologies includes trend extrapolation, scenario-based analysis, SWOT analysis etc. SWOT analysis for example, stands for Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats. Often, strengths and weaknesses reflect the internal, while opportunities and threats reflect the external environment.

Technology assessment and forecasting is very relevant especially when technology progresses at a fast rate over time, with the potential to impact the world. There is a need to obtain an understanding on what type of changes or impacts that a certain technology might incur, be it currently existing or emerging. These evaluated impacts or predicted ones extrapolated from current findings, can very well lead to positive impacts as well as negative ones. Therefore, such assessment and forecasting tools can bring foresight to companies or governmental bodies, in bringing about the positive impacts and plan ways to mitigate or prevent the negative ones from happening.

Lastly, the results from assessment and forecasting can aid in decision-making for the government and/or companies in which technologies or new innovations to invest and research in. This is especially so when there is a need to prioritize, given limited resources especially the developing countries, on whether to implement and use these technologies and when to do so.

Overall, I’ll rate this a 7/10!